Bihar Assembly Elections 2025: High-Stakes Battle Between NDA and Mahagathbandhan

Patna, 26 July 2025 — As Bihar prepares for its 18th Legislative Assembly elections scheduled between October and November this year, political parties are intensifying their ground campaigns in pursuit of the 243-seat legislature. With voter sentiment rapidly evolving and alliances being tested, this election promises to be one of the most unpredictable in recent memory.

According to recent opinion polls, Tejashwi Yadav of the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) is emerging as the most popular choice for Chief Minister, garnering around 35% voter support, followed by incumbent leader Nitish Kumar with approximately 25%. The RJD-led Mahagathbandhan appears to be gaining momentum, especially among the Muslim-Yadav bloc and younger voters. Meanwhile, the NDA coalition, featuring the BJP and JD(U), remains a formidable force despite internal leadership questions and rumors of a potential BJP-led CM bid.

The BJP is expected to contest 101 seats, JD(U) may vie for 102, and junior allies like LJP (RV), HAM, and RLM could take up the remaining 7–22 seats. On the other hand, Congress is demanding over 90 seats within the Mahagathbandhan framework, and smaller parties such as AIMIM and JMM are seeking entry into the alliance.

Analysts highlight that women voters (49%), along with caste-based demographics—EBC (36%), OBC (14%), SC (20%), and Upper Castes (12–15%)—will play a pivotal role in swinging the mandate. Additionally, revisions in the electoral roll and concerns over rural and migrant voter inclusion are being closely watched by election observers.

While opinion surveys indicate a lead for RJD in projected vote share and CM preference, the possibility of a fractured verdict or coalition-led government looms large.

This high-stakes contest is more than just a leadership transition—it’s a referendum on economic aspirations, social welfare delivery, and regional representation. With PM Modi actively campaigning and Nitish Kumar’s health and succession plans in the spotlight, voters are expected to weigh stability against change