Tensions between India and Pakistan have surged to a boiling point after the April 22, 2025, terror attack in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir. Armed militants opened fire on tourists in the scenic Baisaran Valley, killing 26 civilians and injuring 20 others. Reports confirmed the attackers were armed with M4 carbines and AK-47s, targeting non-Muslim tourists and forcing them to recite Islamic verses before shooting.
 
In swift retaliation, India launched Operation Sindoor on May 7, 2025—a series of precision strikes on nine terrorist camps across Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK), aimed at neutralizing terror outfits like Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed. The strikes hit locations including Kotli, Muzaffarabad, Bagh, Bahawalpur, and Muridke.
 
In response, Pakistan fired drones and missiles at Indian military bases in Adampur, Bhatinda, and Chandigarh. All were intercepted by Indian air defenses. India hit back by targeting key Pakistani air defense installations, including one near Lahore.
 
As military tensions escalate, global powers are watching closely. Here's a look at which countries are likely to back India and which might support Pakistan—and why:

 

Countries Likely to Support India

  1. United States
    Once closely allied with Pakistan during the Cold War, the United States now sees India as a vital partner in the Indo-Pacific region. The U.S. and India cooperate extensively on counterterrorism, defense, and democratic initiatives.
    Why: India is central to the U.S. strategy to counterbalance China's regional dominance and uphold a free and open Indo-Pacific.

  2. Russia
    India and Russia share a decades-long defense partnership. Though Russia has cordial ties with Pakistan, its primary strategic and military alliance remains with India.
    Why: Russia views India as a long-standing ally and a counterweight to China's expanding influence, despite its own growing closeness with Beijing.

  3. Israel
    India is one of Israel’s biggest defense clients. The two nations collaborate closely on intelligence, cybersecurity, and military technology.
    Why: Shared concerns about Islamist terrorism make Israel a strong supporter of India in regional security matters.

  4. France
    France has supplied India with critical military assets such as Rafale jets and backs India’s strategic interests in the Indian Ocean.
    Why: A shared commitment to democratic values, mutual defense cooperation, and strategic stability in Asia.

  5. Australia and Japan
    As part of the Quad alliance with India and the United States, both countries prioritize maintaining a balance of power in the Indo-Pacific.

  6. US, Pak and India
    Why: Their alignment with India supports regional stability and counters China's assertiveness.

Countries Likely to Support Pakistan

  1. China
    China is Pakistan’s most trusted ally, with deep military and economic links including the multibillion-dollar China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Beijing has consistently backed Pakistan diplomatically.
    Why: Pakistan is key to China's regional strategy to counter India and protect its investments and influence in South Asia.

  2. Saudi Arabia and Gulf States
    Saudi Arabia has long provided economic aid to Pakistan and shares strong religious and military ties.
    Why: Religious solidarity, longstanding alliances, and strategic partnerships in regional security.

  3. Turkey
    Under President Erdogan, Turkey has been vocal in support of Pakistan, especially on the Kashmir issue, and seeks greater influence in the Muslim world.
    Why: Religious solidarity and a geopolitical strategy to enhance ties with Muslim-majority nations.

  4. Iran
    Though Iran's relationship with Pakistan is often complex, it leans toward Islamabad when countering Indian regional dominance.China and Pak
    Why: Shared regional security concerns and political rivalry with India over influence in South Asia.

Neutral or Ambiguous Stance

1. United Kingdom
With historic ties to both countries, the UK would likely adopt a neutral diplomatic stance while pushing for peace.
 
Why: Economic interests in both India and Pakistan, coupled with a large South Asian diaspora in the UK.
 
2. European Union and United Nations
Both bodies would emphasize diplomatic solutions and conflict de-escalation rather than siding with either country.
 
Why: Focus on global stability and conflict resolution. However, individual EU nations like France or Germany may show sympathy toward India.
 
A Delicate Web of Alliances
An India-Pakistan war would create a complex geopolitical ripple effect. While India may receive support from the U.S., Russia, Israel, France, Japan, and Australia, Pakistan would likely count on backing from China, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Iran.
 
The global response would hinge on not just alliances but also strategic calculations. Given that both nations are nuclear-armed, the international community—especially the UN and major powers—would be under immense pressure to push for restraint and diplomacy.